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Avoiding further escalation in Ukraine

Catholic scholars offer their contributions on the quest for peace: in this article, Raul Caruso, Professor of Peace Economics at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan, offers his perspective on how the world can help avoid further escalation in Ukraine.

In light of Pope Francis’ numerous appeals for peace in Ukraine, and in line with its mission of global cooperation for the Common Good based on Catholic identity, the Strategic Alliance of Catholic Research Universities (SACRU) has collected viewpoints from various experts in International Relations, Economy, and Theology from its partner universities. The contributions, including this article by Professor Raul Caruso, are intended to provide a broader perspective on the work for peace. 

By Raul Caruso
Professor of Peace Economics at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milan

Three points of discussion to avoid further escalation in Ukraine


On February 24th, 2022, Vladimir Putin launched a large-scale attack against Ukraine. Many countries have severely condemned it. Tension has now escalated. All governments and diplomats ought to work tirelessly to avoid further worsening and protect civilians. Hereafter, I raise three additional points worth discussing to avoid further escalation in the near future.

First, although the focus is on Russia, US and Europe in these hours, it is time to reinvigorate a broad dialogue with China. Cooperation with China is compelling nowadays. In particular, since western states are imposing a comprehensive set of significant economic sanctions against the Kremlin, China may become the key actor in such a scenario. The sanctions could turn ineffective if a large trading partner like China takes over the business of western countries with Russia. Recently, Bejing and Moscow have strengthened their ties, and China is a major importer of Russian oil and gas. China may increase their imports so heavily supporting the Kremlin. US and European countries have to avoid this.

Second, albeit unpopular and ineffective within a brief time, it is time to re-launch global policies and agreements on the arms trade. In the latest years, the ambiguous approach of western governments on arms trade has contributed to the fragmentation of the arms market. Western governments have become competitors in the world weapons market rather than sticking to traditional relationships to shrink the market. Then, arms sales have become a central element of Russian foreign policy. Some countries are now tied to the Kremlin because of that link. The signal to be sent to the world is that democracies are committed to establishing peace. Therefore, any further ambiguity in the global arms market has to be avoided.

Third, European democracies of the EU have to commit themselves to finalize the enlargement towards the Balkans. There, Putin has a substantial impact on the region because of the support given to one member of the Bosnian tripartite presidency, namely the Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik. In the latest months, tension has increased in the region. Needless to say, a new war in Bosnia would be the worst-case scenario for Europe. Finally, in brief, reaching a cease-fire is extremely urgent but working to change the global scenario of instability is also compelling. 

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